Duke makes the short trip to Raleigh on Saturday looking to continue its recent domination of NC State, and I am all about a play on the Blue Devils as the road chalk in this ACC battle.

Duke has won three in a row, and five of the last six meetings straight-up and has covered seven of the last nine, including each of their last three victories. The Blue Devils defeated the Wolfpack 24-3 in 2023, 29-19 in Raleigh in 2024 and 45-33 last season. That is particularly significant considering NC State has the home-field advantage this weekend.

Duke enters at 6-2, while the Wolfpack are 4-4 and will be playing under interim head coach Todd Goebbel following Dave Doeren's dismissal.

The statistical matchup also favors Duke, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The Blue Devils are allowing just 14.3 points and 290.3 yards per game, compared with NC State's 25.9 points and 366.1 yards allowed. Duke ranks fifth nationally in defensive third-down efficiency, allowing opponents to convert just 27.5% of their opportunities.

The Wolfpack have been more productive offensively, averaging 408.3 yards per game, but they will have to deal with a Duke defense that has generated 24 sacks through eight games.

Duke's offensive balance presents another problem for the Wolfpack. Running back Nate Sheppard has rushed for 972 yards, ranking among the nation's leading rushers, and gives the Blue Devils an important advantage in controlling the game.

NC State's defense has allowed 366.1 yards per contest, while Duke is averaging 420.6 yards offensively. The Wolfpack did respond to the coaching change with a convincing 31-10 victory over California, but that performance came against a Golden Bears team that has struggled offensively. Duke is coming off an even more impressive performance, dismantling Boston College 47-2. 

True, the Blue Devils have been involved in some close road games, and NC State will certainly be motivated in this rivalry, but the recent head-to-head results are difficult to dismiss.

The series history is the deciding factor for us, particularly when combined with Duke's defensive advantage. The Blue Devils have won three straight against NC State by double-digit margins, including a 10-point victory at Carter-Finley Stadium in 2024. 

This is a rivalry in which Duke has consistently found answers against the Wolfpack, and I see no compelling reason to go against that pattern. NC State's coaching transition and home-field advantage deserve consideration, but Duke has been the more complete team throughout the season.

Lay the small number with the Blue Devils and look for them to make it four consecutive victories over their Tobacco Road rival.