There is a clear cut right side to this game.
And that right side is the Seattle Seahawks.
Let's start with the New England Patriots, who truth be told, shouldn't be here.
Courtesy of C.J Stroud throwing 4 INT's and Sean Payton being a complete dumb ass, they are here.
They are here because they played one of the easiest regular season schedules in NFL history, a schedule which saw them play just 2 winning teams.
They played the Ravens when they were banged up and injured and they played the Bills.
Inside that schedule is one other important nugget about their regular season schedule: they only faced one top 5 defense..
Week 8 they faced the #3 "D" in the Cleveland Browns at home with Dillion Gabriel at QB and blew them out 32-13.
The Browns sacked him 6 TIMES.
Then the playoffs arrived, and they faced 3 defenses in the top 5: Chargers #5, the Texans #1 and the Broncos #2.
And Drake Maye struggled in all 3 games.....BADLY.
Wild card round at home he threw a pick against the Chargers in an ugly 16-3 win as LA sacked him 5 TIMES.
Divisional round against the Texans, and was 16 of 27 for 179 yards and another pick as Houston sacked him 5 TIMES.
And against Denver in the 1st half, he was 7 of 14 for 41 yards. You can throw out the 2nd half due to the weather. Broncos sacked 5 TIMES.
Now he faces a defense in Seattle, which is ranked in the top 5 in total defense and the 3rd best in the league at sacking the QB.
And the reason why is the following stat: Seattle is 6th worst team in the NFL at blitzing the QB, but they rank top 3 in QB pressures.
They don't have to blitz to get pressure because their front 4 gets there.
Folks, 21 sacks given up by an offensive line starting 2 rookies on the left side and 3 of those games they had home field advantage.
And now they face the best defense they will have seen all year long......and I see nothing that leads me to believe his line will be able to protect him here.
Advantage Seahawks. And it's a HUGE ADVANTAGE.
In my opinion the only way this game is not a double digit game is if Darnold turns it over. I really believe that.
I would be lying if I said his turnover problems didn't worry me a bit!!
However, he has thrown just 1 pick in his last 4 games. Simply put, he is playing the best football of his entire career right now.
New England is a great story but in my opinion, the better TEAM across the board is the Seahawks.
You don't win as many Super Bowl games as I have betting on a great story, you bet on the team that you feel wins the game.
In a nutshell, this game feels a lot like two other Super bowls: #48 with Seattle/Denver and #55 with Bucs/Chiefs.
Those 2 games were decided by the dominance of an overwhelming defensive line versus an inferior offensive line.
END OF STORY.
The Seattle Seahawks win this game and in case you didn't know, in the history of the Super Bowl the SU winner is 50-7-2 ATS
That's right, only 7 times in 59 games the underdog has lost but covered.
Congrats to the Seattle Seahawks on your world championship.
Seattle 31-13.
I will come back with them HUGE again.
If Bo Nix were playing today, the line would have opened Broncos -2 1/2.
With Nix out, the boys in Vegas opened the Patriots -5.
So either Nix is worth 7 points, which puts him in Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning territory or Jarrett Stidham is worth 7 points to the Pats.
Either way, I will gladly now walk, but run to the ticket window and grab this value we are getting today with the Broncos as a home dog in the AFC Championship.
Only one other time in NFL history has there been a #1 seed as a home dog in a conference championship game, 1976 with the Steelers at Raiders.
Oakland was +4 and they won the game outright 24-7.
Forget the fact the Patriots are 0-4 at Denver in the playoffs, one game was 1986 and the other 3 were with Tom Brady.
In my opinion, this game comes down to 2 things: Can Stidham play error free football and can the Broncos pass rush get to Drake Maye.
My Answer: YES and YES.
Let's start with Stidham. He is no hack. The Patriots drafted him, and New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel took him to Vegas with him.
And Sean Payton hand picked him to be the backup in Denver, and when Payton announced last week Nix would miss the season, he emphatically backed Stidham.
"Stiddy will be ready to play. We'll be fine!"
He has been in the system for 3 years, has been a mentor to Nix and the moment won't be too big for him and in fact, I believe he will have a day.
Who isn't going to have a great day is this offensive line of the Patriots and most notably, the 2 rookies on the left side Will Campbell and Jared Wilson.
At home, no crowd noise, all the advantages you could ask for, Campbell gave up 2 sacks and 5 pressures while Wilson gave up 2 sacks and 2 pressures.
Now you are on the road, in altitude, crowd noise and the #1 sack team in the NFL in the Broncos, you think those 2 are going to be OK???????
Hell no, and that doesn't bode well for a kid in the pocket in Maye who puts the ball on the ground.
It's been a helluva turn around New England but fact of the matter is, they only beat 2 teams in the regular season with a winning record: Ravens and Bills.
They were fortunate to get 2 playoff games at home against Justin Herbert and C.J Stroud.
Herbert is now 0-3 in the playoffs on the road: a 27-0 collapse at J'ville, 4 iNT's at Houston and the garbage performance in New England.
And not much needs to be said about Stroud and his 4 picks last week.
Mark my words down right now: If Jarrett Stidham plays an error free game, the Denver Broncos will win this game outright.
Couple of quick numbers: Sean Payton is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS as a home dog versus winning teams.
And with the win and cover last week against Buffalo, he moves to 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS versus winning teams out of the AFC East.
Give me the home dog all day long in the Mile High City.