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THURSDAY'S FREE PICK

I'm on a 590-551-22 roll with comp plays the past 694 days following Wednesday's Run Line split (Winner - Cards; Loser - Blue Jays). No Video Report today; I'll be returning on Friday. As usual when I don't have a video you can find your free pick in this space.


For Thursday I'm going to back the Cubs (-145 on the Run Line) on the road against the White Sox.

Chicago's Jon Lester's was struggling when the calendar flipped to July. His first start on the 4th was no celebration as he allowed six runs on nine hits in five innings at Tampa. Five days later at Wrigley was even worse as he was pounded for 10 runs on six hits by the Pirates in a game he managed to record just two outs.

Since the All Star break, however, both the Cubbies and Lester have charted a more positive course. The team has won 10 of 12 and the veteran left-hander bounced back from those aforementioned debacles with strong performances at Atlanta (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 6 K) and home versus St. Louis (8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 10 K).

The White Sox, who went 0-5 on their last homestand, returned to the south side last night and lost once more, 8-3, to Jake Arrieta. They're in a 2-14 slump as they also lost at Wrigley on Tuesday, 7-2, after winning Monday's series-opener, 3-1.

The Pale Hose have lost each of Mike Pelfrey's last three starts and he has a 6.08 ERA in four July outings.


 


 

10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
212-166-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
103-74-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

100-74-3 Record

 


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Buy Flexi-Pass

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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NATIONAL LEAGUE, Thursday, July 27, 2017
12:05 PM 901 MIL (M Blazek -R)
902 WAS (M Scherzer -R)
2
15

FINAL
9u25
-295
8½o20
-300
8½o20
-280
8½o20
-305
9u25
-295
8½o20
-350
7:10 PM 903 CIN (R Stephenson -R)
904 MIA (C O'grady -L)
1
4
TOP
9th

-129
9½o25
-132
9½o20
-129
10o30
-130

-129
9½o15
-133
7:15 PM 905 ARI (Z Godley -R)
906 STL (L Weaver -R)
4
0
TOP
8th
-115
-117
8½o20
-114
9u30
-115
9u15
-115
-119
9u30
9:10 PM 907 NYM (C Flexen -R)
908 SDG (L Perdomo -R)
1
4
BOT
3rd
-119
9u25
-119
9u20
-115
9u20
-120
9u15
-119
9u25
-116
9
AMERICAN LEAGUE, Thursday, July 27, 2017
12:10 PM 909 LAA (J Ramirez -R)
910 CLE (T Bauer -R)
1
2

FINAL
9½u15
-160
9½u20
-149

-147
9½u15
-155
9½u15
-160
9½u15
-148
12:35 PM 911 OAK (S Manaea -L)
912 TOR (M Stroman -R)
4
8
IN 10
FINAL
8½o25
-192
9u25
-185
8½o25
-187
8½o15
-170
8½o25
-192
9u25
-195
7:05 PM 913 TAM (C Archer -R)
914 NYY (C Sabathia -L)
5
4
BOT
9th
9u20
-129
9u25
-133
9u35
-125
9u25
-130
9u20
-129
9u25
-130
INTERLEAGUE, Thursday, July 27, 2017
8:10 PM 915 CUB (J Lester -L)
916 CWS (M Pelfrey -R)
6
2
BOT
8th
-270
10u15
-270
10u15
-260
10
-260
10o20
-270
10u15
-300
10
NATIONAL LEAGUE, Friday, July 28, 2017
7:05 PM 951 ATL (J Teheran -R)
952 PHI (J Hellickson -R)
    -124
9o15
-120
9o20
 
 
-120
9o15
-124
9o15
-120
9
7:05 PM 953 COL (G Marquez -R)
954 WAS (T Roark -R)
    9½u15
-145
9½u20
-144
 
 
9½u20
-145
9½u15
-145
9½u15
-145
7:10 PM 955 CIN (S Romano -R)
956 MIA (V Worley -R)
    9½o15
-114

-114
 
 
9½o15
-110
9½o15
-114
9½o15
-113
8:10 PM 957 CUB (J Quintana -L)
958 MIL (B Suter -L)
    -155
9
-152
9o15
 
 
-155
9o15
-155
9
-155
9
8:15 PM 959 ARI (R Ray -L)
960 STL (M Wacha -R)
    8o20
-118
8o20
-115
 
 
8o20
-115
8o20
-118
8o25
-115
10:10 PM 961 SFO (M Moore -L)
962 LOS (A Wood -L)
    8
-276
8
-275
 
 
8
-275
8
-276
8o15
-290
10:10 PM 963 PIT (C Kuhl -R)
964 SDG (D Lamet -R)
    -111
8
-110
8o25
 
 
8o20
-110
-111
8½u15
-110
8o25
AMERICAN LEAGUE, Friday, July 28, 2017
7:05 PM 965 TAM (A Pruitt -R)
966 NYY (M Tanaka -R)
   
-180
9½u15
-174
 
 

-175

-180

-180
7:05 PM 967 Laa Undecided
968 TOR (J Happ -L)
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7:10 PM 969 KAN (J Vargas -L)
970 BOS (D Price -L)
    9
-175

-172
 
 

-175

-175

-180
7:10 PM 971 HOU (D Keuchel -L)
972 DET (J Zimmermann -R)
    -178
9½u20
-178
9½u20
 
 
-175
9½u20
-178
9½u20
-180
9½u20
8:05 PM 973 BAL (C Tillman -R)
974 TEX (A Cashner -R)
    11
-135
11o15
-132
 
 
11
-135
11
-135
11o15
-130
8:10 PM 975 CLE (D Salazar -R)
976 CWS (D Holland -L)
    -220
9½o15
-215
9½o15
 
 
-215
9½o15
-220
9½o15
-220
9½o20
10:05 PM 977 MIN (J Garcia -L)
978 OAK (D Gossett -R)
    -111
9o20
-108
9o20
 
 
9o20
-110
-111
9o20
-110
9o20
INTERLEAGUE, Friday, July 28, 2017
10:10 PM 979 NYM (R Montero -R)
980 SEA (A Miranda -L)
    9o20
-145
9½o15
-144
 
 
9½o15
-145
9½o15
-145
9½o15
-145
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