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WEDNESDAY'S FREE PICK


I'm on a 516-477-21 roll with comp plays the past 580 days despite Tuesday's loser on Central Florida.


For Wednesday I'm backing Furman (+3) at Saint Peter's in a College Insider Tournament semifinal game in Jersey City.


What did I know about these two teams before this morning? 


Absolutely nothing.


Just being honest.


Probably could sit down with you and have a meaningful conversation regarind 250 to 275 of the 347 Division-1 teams any day of the season - but these are not two of them.


I was intrigued, nonetheless, by this match-up and did some extensive research because this is another one of those games that I won't bet on but it could pay dividends in a few days when the tournament title game is played against the winner of the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Maryland-Baltimore County. And, of course, I was in a similar situation with TAMCC a few weeks back and it's paid off as the Highlanders have in fact made us money since.


Furman is fresh off a 79-64 win at Campbell on Saturday. But one day later the Southern Conference regular season co-champions lost their head coach, Niko Medved, who left to fill the vacancy at Drake. Normally that would be a red flag, but there's a few things I don't like about St. Peter's and the Paladins gave the interim coaching tag to assistant Bob Richey..


Saint Peter's, 21-13 on the season, is on a 9-1 roll of late with the lone loss coming against Iona in the MAAC Tournament semifinals. The Peacocks are coming off CIT road wins against Texas State, 49-44, and Albany, 59-55. However, they shot just 31.8 percent against the Bobcats and needed to rally from a 17-point deficit to beat Texas State. And against the Great Danes they had to comeback from 10 points down.


Saint Peter's is No. 5 in the nation in scoring defense with a per game yield of 61.1 points. But that's only five fewer points than Furman allows in the Southern Conference where scoring is more plentiful. And these teams are practically dead even in field goal defense (4.17 percent for St. Pete's; 42 for Furman). Offensively, however, the Paladins are more productive as they average 74.7 a game, nearly nine more than the Peacocks and I just have a hunch they win this game outright.  


Dangerous betting hunches though and that's why this is relegated to complimentary play status as I'm riding Coast Carolina-Wyoming as today's Top-Rated 15 Dimer # 4 in a Row since Sunday and 15 of 22 overall in college hoops.

 


 

10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
212-166-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
103-74-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

88-66-3 Record

 


Payment Types

Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner # 29 of 46

Coastal Carolina - Wyoming

Winning Day # 30 of 50

Buy Now Buy Now $79
Another "minor league" tournament winner on Tuesday courtesy of a Top-Rated 15 Dimer on Georgia Tech (-2') by 15 over Cal-State Bakersfield. It came on the heels of Monday's 15 Dimer on Coast Carolina (+1) by 10 over Wyoming in Game One of the CBI Finals and Sunday's 15 Dimer on Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (+1') in a 16-point blowout of Fort Wayne in the College Insider Tournament.

Tonight the CBI Finals resume with Game Two as Coast Carolina visits Wyoming in Laramie. That's where I'm heading for Winning Day # 30 of 50 with Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner # 29 of 46 (and 15 of 22 in college).

As for the comp plays, I'm on a 516-478-21 roll the past 582 days following Tuesday's loser on Central Florida. 

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Buy Flexi-Pass

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Grande Carib CRIS Coast
NBA Wednesday, March 29th
7:05 PM 501 Atlanta
502 Philadelphia
     
 
-3
212½
-3-15
212
-3
212½
-3-05
212½
-3
212
7:05 PM 503 Oklahoma City
504 Orlando
     
 
-5
220½
-5-05
220
-5½-15
219½
-5
220½
-5½
220½
7:35 PM 505 Charlotte
506 Toronto
     
 
202
-6
202
-6
201
-6
202
-6-05
202
-5½
7:35 PM 507 Miami
508 New York
     
 
-2½
207½
-2½
207½
-3½
207½
-2½
207
-3
208
7:35 PM 509 Milwaukee
510 Boston
     
 
209½
-7½
209½
-7½
210
-7½
209
-8
210½
-7½
8:05 PM 511 Indiana
512 Memphis
     
 
196
-4
196
-4
196
-4
196
-4
196
-4½
8:05 PM 513 Dallas
514 New Orleans
     
 
201½
-6
201½
-6-15
201½
-6
201½
-6-15
200½
-5½
9:35 PM 515 Golden State
516 San Antonio
     
 
208½
-4½
208½
-4½
208
-4½
208
-4½-15
208½
-5
10:35 PM 517 Utah
518 Sacramento
     
 
-7½
195
-7½-15
195
-7½
195
-7½
195
-7½
194½
10:35 PM 519 Washington
520 La Clippers
     
 
219½
-6½
219
-6
219
-6
219
-6-15
219
-5½
NBA Thursday, March 30th
7:35 PM 701 Brooklyn
702 Detroit
     
 
213½
-6
 
 
213
-6
213
-6
 
 
8:05 PM 703 Cleveland
704 Chicago
     
 
-5½
210½
 
 
-5½
210
-5½
210
 
 
8:05 PM 705 La Lakers
706 Minnesota
     
 
220½
-10½
 
 
220½
-10½
220½
-10½
 
 
10:05 PM 707 La Clippers
708 Phoenix
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10:35 PM 709 Houston
710 Portland
     
 
-1
228½
 
 
-1
228½
-1
228½
 
 
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