Biggest College Hoop Plays of the Season
3-1 on
the Year
15
Dime Plays
Winner - Texas-El Paso (-3') by 14 at
Tulsa - March 12
Winner - Kansas State (-4') by 12 over
BYU - March 20
Winner - Duke (-8') by 13 over
Purdue - March 26
Loser - Kansas State vs.
Butler - March 27
Same 15 Dime releases I am
26-8-2 the past two years in the
NFL
Super
Bowl Sunday
15
Dime Play
Colts
- Loser
Yes, I
lost the Super Bowl. And like I told
you in advance, it was just a 15 dime
play, no different than the same 15
dime plays I went 8-1-1 the previous
10 NFL Sundays. No different than the
same 15 dime plays I'm 26-8-2 the past
two NFL seasons combined.
If you
weren't with me for all the winners;
sorry, but whose fault is that?
Bottom
Line: I didn't tell you to put the
house payment on the Colts or to take
a loan out for the wager. I used the
same money-managment principles that
have me up 356 Dimes the past two years
in the NFL and 372 dimes the past 17
months in ALL sports.
Unlike
some guys in this business who had
movies made about their life, I didn't
come with some outrageously rated play
just because it was the Super Bowl.
I told you repeatedly, it was just
another game and to be a successful
WINNING handicapper - which the numbers
above prove again that I am - you must
always adhere to your money management
principles. What kind of financial
advisor would I be if I didn't do that?
26-8-2
with 15 Dimers past two seasons
including
8-2-1 the final 11 Sundays
of the
year
Sunday,
January 17
15
Dime Play
Vikings
- Winner
This
is what I told you....
My Best
Bet last Saturday was Dallas and part
of the reason why was because I thought
the Eagles were simply a bad team,
one that the Cowboys had trounced a
week earlier and I thought a repeat
performance was on the docket. And,
as you saw, that's exactly what happened
as the Pokes, who won the regular season
finale 24-0, scored 27 unanswered points
in the second quarter en route to a
34-14 blowout.
How ironic
that the Cowboys, coming off a win
over the Eagles, now carry a four-game
winning streak into a road game with
an NFC North squad. Don't tell me that
you don't recall the exact same scenario
played out earlier this season. Remember?
The 'Boys followed their road upset
of the Birds in Philly with a trip
to Lambeau and got upset themselves
the next week by the Packers 17-7.
A couple
of things play into my choice of Minnesota
in this contest. First, the oddsmakers
- and betting public - are giving the
Cowboys way too much credit for consecutive
routs of the Eagles, who as I've told
you repeatedly, simply aren't any good.
And let's back-up a moment. Three weeks
ago they shutout the Redskins 17-0.
Big deal. And the 24-17 win at New
Orleans against the then-unbeaten Saints,
who were crippled injury-wise both
defensively and at running back, should
have been expected with the benefit
of hindsight.
Listen,
I was on New Orleans against Dallas
that day and obviously lost. But keep
in mind what the Cowboys had done the
previous two weeks before meeting the
Saints. They were outplayed at home
in a 20-17 loss to San Diego in a game
that wasn't as close as the final score
indicated. And a week earlier they
blew a 10-0 early lead in a 31-24 loss
to the Giants on the road.
It's great
to take a hot team in the playoffs,
but you've still got to consider the
body of work they compiled in the season's
latter stages. And pricing Dallas as
such a competitive dog means Minnesota
is an undervalued favorite in my book.
You know
how I loved backing the Vikings this
season, especially at home where they
were 8-0 SU, winning on average 33-16,
outgaining their opponents 426-273
in total yards. That's a 153-yard differential
per game.
Sure,
Minny struggled down the stretch, but
starting with the second half of the
Monday night loss at Chicago through
the regular season home finale blowout
of the Giants, look at the numbers
Brett Favre put up: 46-for-62....601
yards....6 TDs.
Unlike
the Eagles, the Vikings have a strong
ground game to complement Favre. And
their offensive line protection, although
spotty at times, is far superior to
anything Philadelphia was able to bring
to the table this entire season.
These
teams shared four common opponents
this year: Green Bay, Seattle, Carolina
and the Giants. The Vikings went 4-1
both SU and ATS against that quartet,
winning on average 31-18. On the other
hand, Dallas went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS
against them with a three-point average
margin of victory (24-21).
This has
been a series dominated by the Vikings
over the years as they've won and covered
five of the last six meetings. And
although Tony Romo and the Cowboys
have exorcised some late-season and
playoff demons in recent weeks, it's
still worth noting that Dallas is 2-10
SU (3-9 ATS) in its last 12 postseason
highway outings, including 1-6 SU and
ATS when coming off a win such as last
week's versus Philly. Plus, Wade Phillips
is 0-3 SU and ATS when catching points
in the playoffs.
This game's
prmce - which has jeen -3 practically
all week - represents value for Minnesota
backers like myself because I feel
the Vikings should be laying at least
4 1/2 points in this contest, if not
6. But again, the oddsmakers have overreacted
- as has the public - to the Cowboys'
back-to-back routs of the Eagles. And,
in this case, that's okay because that
gives me exceptional value backing
a team that's 8-0 at home, that's coming
off a much-needed bye week that was
preceded by a 44-7 rout of the Giants
a week earlier.
Oh, and
by the way, I would be remiss if I
didn't point out that Dallas lost both
games against the Giants this season,
33-31 at home and 31-24 on the road.
And in those two games, Eli Manning
passed for 571 yards and four touchdowns.
My money is on Favre having a big day
against the Dallas "D," unlike Philly's
Donovan McNabb, who didn't have the
ground support or protection the past
two Sundays needed to be successful.
Saturday,
January 16
15
Dime Play
Teaser
of the Year - Saints & Colts
This
is what I told you....
Reduce
the points you lay with both home favorites.
Using the standard six
points you get in a two-team teaser,
and based on the current prices of
New Orleans -7 and Indianapolis -6
1/2 to -7, you are essentially making
both the Saints and Colts 1-point home
favorites.
When I handicap a card,
I'm always looking for potential straight-up
plays and potential teaser picks. And
the game that appear to me most in
a teaser are those where I've got a
line between 6 and 9 points. Give me
a home favorite, and it's even better.
Thus is the case with New Orleans and
Indianapolis today.
Do I feel
that comfortable playing either team
straight-up, laying around seven points,
against their respective foes today?
Absolutely not. But, let me manipulate
the line by six points and make both
of these clubs near pick-em at home,
and I love them both.
Let's
take a look at the New Orleans-Arizona
game first. I know the Saints slumped
down the homestretch, but the bye week
and a meaningless regular season finale
allowed Sean Payton to rest his weary
troops. More importantly, it allowed
two more weeks for his injury-riddled
defense to get healthy. And today,
for the first time in about two months,
New Orleans will be fielding almost
its entiring starting defense when
it takes the field. And in the secondary
especially, that's key with Kurt Warner
coming to town.
As for
Arizona, last week's overtime win was
great to watch, but didn't it concern
you that the Cardinals weren't able
to protect a 17-0 lead at home? And
didn't you feel - just like me - that
if not for that final turnover in overtime
that Green Bay would have marched down
the field and won the game with a field
goal or TD because Arizona's defense
had no answers for Aaron Rodgers, who
passed for 422 yards and 4 TDS despite
playing catch-up all day long. Now
this same Cardinal "D" is going to
have to try to stop Drew Brees and
his quick-strike attack. I just don't
see it happening, and again, with the
teaser I just need the Saints to basically
win the game outright.
Scooting
over to the Indianapolis-Baltimore
game, the Colts' first-year head coach
Jim Caldwell seemingly did everything
right this season until he pulled Peyton
Manning from Game 15 and cost the team
a shot at an undefeated season. Caldwell
sacrificed the season's final two games
because he rightfully put the playoffs
above everything else so today is put
up or shut up time for this team.
Do I feel
confident backing Peyton considering
he's 0-3 in the postseason coming off
a bye? Nope.
Do I feel
confident laying so many points with
the Colts considering they won seven
of their 14 games this season by four
points or less? Nope.
So, once
again, this is the ideal spot to play
Indianapolis in a teaser, just asking
the Colts to win outright at home in
a virtual pick-em affair after I've
manipulated the line.
As for
the Ravens, they were able to jump
on New England early last weekend because
of turnovers. Consequently, Joe Flacco
wasn't called on to do much, Ray Rice
just ran all day long, and the defense
was able to attack non-stop. That is
generally not the way they play nor
the way most NFL games play out, either.
The Colts don't turn the ball over
and the offensive line affords Manning
outstanding protection. Plus, don't
forget this is also Baltimore fourth
straight road game
Biggest Play of the Year - Part 2 (on
11/30)
30
Dime Release - Part 2
Saints
- Winner
4-0 with
30 Dimers past two seasons
And
this is what I told you...
Two weeks
ago in my weekly TV show and various
radio interviews, I was all over New
England at Indianapolis, telling everyone
to grab the points with the Patriots
and even suggesting a smaller moneyline
wager because I believed they were
going to win the game outright. A cover
they got, but you know how the final
score went thanks to Bill Belichick's
fourth-down gamble. Lost among the
controversy over that call was the
fact the Pats could not stop Indy's
offense after opening up a big double-digit
lead in the first half. Peyton Manning
kept firing, marching the Colts up
and down the field, putting them in
the position to win the game if they
got the ball back one more time, and
Belichick's gamble presented them with
that golden opportunity.
Both the
Colts and Saints were undefeated and
playing at home when the Patriots came
calling. The difference between the
two clubs? Indianapolis can't run the
ball a lick; New Orleans entered the
weekend with the league's No. 5 rushing
attack as Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell
and Reggie Bush have spearheaded a
unit that's averaged 154.3 yards per
game (4.8 ypc). That triumvirate tackles
a New England defense that allows opposing
ball carriers to average 4.4 yards
per carry. Last week at home the Jets'
Thomas Jones ran for 103 yards on 21
carries despite his team falling behind
by 3 TDs early so this is not a stop
unit that can be counted on.
The Patriots
have more problems defensively that
just stopping the run; their pass rush
has generated just 18 sacks on the
season. You don't beat Drew Brees,
who has one of the quickest - if not
the quickest - release in pro football,
unless you pressure him continuously.
Just ask Philadelphia's blitzers. Or
those of the Giants. And with a strong
ground game to rely on for the first
time in his tenure in New Orleans,
it's no wonder Brees is helming an
offense averaging 36.9 points and 420.5
yards per game.
Where
the Saints have been particularly dangerous
this year is in the second half of
games where they've outscored their
foes 188-78. That margin swells to
105-24 in the fourth quarter. Both
stats are troublesome for a New England
defense that couldn't withstand the
second-half comebacks of the Colts
and Broncos, two previous undefeated
teams they lost to on the road this
season. And the Patriots often seem
to have a patchwork defense held together
by bailing wire and aging veterans
like Junior Seau.
With the
focus on Brees and the Saints' prolific
scoring attack, their defense often
gets overlooked, but on that side of
the ball they entered the weekend leading
the league with 29 takeaways, including
20 interceptions. Darren Sharper has
rejuvenated the secondary and that
takeaway figure is stunning considering
the team had just 22 for all of last
season.
Put aside
the Belichick mystique against undefeated
teams for a moment; he's 0-3 SU in
those match-ups this season, losing
to the Jets, Broncos and Colts, all
on the road. I'm telling you to put
that aside, but I know the public isn't
and they're also buying into the "don't
bet against the Patriots as an underdog"
shtick, too. That's why the price of
this game has dropped steadily all
week long. But public perception is
often wrong, especially on Monday nights,
and tonight will be no exception as
the Saints expose New England's defensive
flaws while proving to the NFL - and
the viewing public - they are for real,
breaking open a tight game after intermission
before posting a solid 35-24 win.
Biggest Play of the Year (10/5)
30 Dime
Release - Part 1
Vikings
- Winner
And
this is what I told you...
Strip away all the media
hype surrounding Brett Favre's first
encounter as a Viking with his former
employers, and you have simply have
two teams ready to do battle tonight.
The host is favored by anywhere from
4 to 4 1/2 points. As I've noted previously,
when lines are first announced on Sunday
night, I handicap all the games and
give them a projected line which I
then compare to the actual posted price
in Vegas. My line on tonight's game:
Minnesota -7 to -7 1/2. Now you see
why this play on the Vikings is rated
so highly as the line - in my estimation
- is still off by a field goal.
Much was
made of Green Bay's success during
the preseason, a time where its offense
was unstoppable and the new 3-4 defensive
scheme installed by veteran coordinator
Dom Capers was providing immediate
dividends. I watched their games and
fell for the hype as well, forgetting
that the preseason is simply four meaningless
exhibition games primarily featuring
second- and third-stringers. Yet in
Week One, I was on the Packers as a
15 dime release in their home opener
against Chicago and if not for a miracle
51-yard TD pass by Aaron Rodgers in
the final two minutes, I would have
lost in a game in which the Bears thoroughly
dominated on both sides of the line
of scrimmage.
Green
Bay followed its opening win against
Chicago by losing at home to Cincinnati
and then trouncing a woeful St. Louis
club on the road a week ago.
But red
flags abound for the Packers, namely
poor offensive line play and a defense
that's been unable to stop the run
or generate an adequate pass rush.
Rodgers
has had precious little time in the
pocket as he's already been sacked
12 times, hitting the deck a total
of 10 times in the games against the
Bears and Bengals. And his starting
left tackle, Chad Clifton, is a game-time
decision for this contest because of
a sprained ankle. With or without his
left tackle, Rodgers must contend with
a Minnesota defense ranked fourth in
the league overall with a 259.7 yard
average yield. The Vikings, who were
the No. 1 team in the NFL at stopping
the run from the 2006-08 seasons, have
also picked up eight sacks in the season's
first three weeks with Jared Allen
(two sacks, two forced fumbles) leading
the way.
Note: Allen had 4 1/2 of Minnesota's
8 sacks of Rodgers. Conversely, the
Packers never sacked Favre.
Defensively,
Capers' new 3-4 scheme hasn't been
able to reach the likes of Jay Cutler,
Carson Palmer or Marc Bulger as it
has accounted for only five sacks in
three weeks of action. And the Packers
have been vulnerable to the run; the
Bengals Cedric Benson shredded them
for 141 yards on 29 carries at Lambeau
in week two. That same unit is now
tasked with trying to stop the NFL's
leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, who
has gained 357 yards on the season.
In Green Bay's last visit to the Metrodome,
Peterson ran for 192 yards.
Forget
the trends and ATS angles in this one;
Minnesota is simply the more talented
team and that's the reason I had them
pegged as a TD favorite in this contest
at the outset. The discrepancy between
my projected price and the actual number
in Vegas is what gives weight to my
belief that the Vikings win comfortably,
making Favre's first shot against his
former mates this season a successful
one.
SUPER BOWL RECORD
12-4-2
last 18
6-2 last
8
MY MISSION STATEMENT
If you've
heard me on radio, seen me on TV, or
watched my Free Video Reports either
here or elsewhere online, you know
I'm a straight-shooter and I've got
no problem telling you exactly the
way it is. If you want hype and hard
sales pitches, you're looking in the
wrong place, no ifs, ands or buts.
I only
release plays on games I'm personally
playing. If I'm not making a wager,
neither are you.
The past
couple of years I had not been an everyday
player, but having recently moved to
Las Vegas I'm back betting everyday
which means you not only get my action
all the time, but you can for the 1st
time ever save big money on my plays
by purchasing multi-day discount packages.